Pro football handicapping - passing game importance

ost folks are as a rule taking solid passing teams, teams with good QB, while wagering on football.

Does it have a advantageous effect on outcome of game, or is it just bettor mistake again?

I will start wide with this research, first looking at all teams which have on average more yards from passing plays than their current opposition.

Outcome is 49,1% win ATS.

So they are not right,you might think. I don't think they are mistaken on which team is better. Since these squads are favs more than underdogs. Occasional wagerers don't know the math of handicapping. You should regularly match squads vs spread, not only vs. another squad. On average game 70% casual bettors put their green on favorites.

Now what happens if that dominant passing squad is lets say, better by at least 50 yards on avg. It is even worse then - they cover in 48,6% of games. You would come to similar results if you look at teams offensive and defensive passing yardage. Those teams which have better passing offense than defense, are not doing well likewise .

And if we combine those two factors together? The results follow.

1. Team has more offensive than defensive yards and passes more yards the their opponent - 48,4% against the spread on very big sample.

2. Exactly same, but with minimum 50 yards more now - 46,7 % covered.

Now here is the moral: don't trust much passing game, it moves the line. Good passing squads clearly get much money from the crowd.

Knowing this lets look for good defensive lineups that will not allow too passes? Hm, i think we might be on something. Teams giving up less passing yards than their opponent are 50,8%. Appears like we got it right. So, what you need to know?

Casual wagerers love to put money on teams with QBs making passing plays. It looks good, and helps Occasional bettor sbelieve in their team, when they actually should wager the other way.

John P. "The Uncle" is football expert, on USS Picks, which provides sport picks in pro and college sports.